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Getafe II vs Las Palmas II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
9/29/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Getafe II52%
×Draw28%
Las Palmas II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.36
Las Palmas II
0.74

Getafe II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Getafe II
0.93
Las Palmas II
0.40

allows per match

Getafe II
1.07
Las Palmas II
1.80

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
80%
Getafe II or Las Palmas II
72%
Draw or Las Palmas II
48%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
25%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
74%
Getafe II 2+ goals
39%
Getafe II 3+ goals
16%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
52%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
17%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
72%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.93 + Las Palmas II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Las Palmas II attack 0.40 + Getafe II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Getafe II scores more
52%
level
28%
Las Palmas II scores more
20%

Getafe II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Getafe II 0–1 Las Palmas II

Las Palmas II beat Getafe II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2 in Getafe.