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Gernika vs Tolosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Gernika
Gernika
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tolosa
Tolosa
1/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Estadio Urbieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gernika60%
×Draw23%
Tolosa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gernika
1.81
Tolosa
0.83

Gernika creates 118% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 48 away

creates per match

Gernika
1.89
Tolosa
0.96

allows per match

Gernika
0.70
Tolosa
1.73

finishing

Gernika+0.00on par
Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gernika ↓

Tolosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gernika or draw
83%
Gernika or Tolosa
77%
Draw or Tolosa
40%

Winning margin

Gernika wins by 2+
35%
Tolosa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gernika 1+ goals
84%
Gernika 2+ goals
54%
Gernika 3+ goals
27%
Tolosa 1+ goals
56%
Tolosa 2+ goals
20%
Tolosa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gernika (draw refunded)
78%
Tolosa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gernika at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.70 · 27 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gernika attack 1.89 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Gernika defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gernika scores more
60%
level
23%
Tolosa scores more
17%

Gernika at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gernika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Gernika 2–0 Tolosa

Gernika beat Tolosa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Urbieta in Gernika-Lumo.