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Gernika vs Deusto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Gernika
Gernika
CANC
00:00
Deusto
Deusto
4/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Estadio Urbieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gernika55%
×Draw25%
Deusto20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gernika
1.60
Deusto
0.84

Gernika creates 90% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 111 away

creates per match

Gernika
1.89
Deusto
0.98

allows per match

Gernika
0.70
Deusto
1.31

finishing

Gernika+0.00on par
Deusto+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gernika ↓

Deusto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gernika or draw
80%
Gernika or Deusto
75%
Draw or Deusto
45%

Winning margin

Gernika wins by 2+
30%
Deusto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gernika 1+ goals
80%
Gernika 2+ goals
47%
Gernika 3+ goals
22%
Deusto 1+ goals
57%
Deusto 2+ goals
21%
Deusto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gernika (draw refunded)
74%
Deusto (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gernika at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.70 · 27 matches

Deusto away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gernika attack 1.89 + Deusto defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.60

Deusto attack 0.98 + Gernika defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gernika scores more
55%
level
25%
Deusto scores more
20%

Gernika at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gernika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gernika host Deusto

April 9, 2020: Gernika take on Deusto in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gernika host Deusto at Estadio Urbieta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.