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Gernika vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Gernika
Gernika
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
2/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Estadio Urbieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gernika60%
×Draw23%
Aurrerá Ondarroa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gernika
1.77
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.81

Gernika creates 119% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 66 away

creates per match

Gernika
1.89
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.92

allows per match

Gernika
0.70
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.65

finishing

Gernika+0.00on par
Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gernika ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gernika or draw
83%
Gernika or Aurrerá Ondarroa
77%
Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa
40%

Winning margin

Gernika wins by 2+
34%
Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gernika 1+ goals
83%
Gernika 2+ goals
53%
Gernika 3+ goals
26%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
56%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
19%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gernika (draw refunded)
78%
Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gernika at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.70 · 27 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gernika attack 1.89 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.77

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Gernika defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gernika scores more
60%
level
23%
Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
17%

Gernika at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gernika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Gernika 3–1 Aurrerá Ondarroa

Gernika beat Aurrerá Ondarroa 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Urbieta in Gernika-Lumo.