Germinal de Rawson vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca — Torneo Federal A 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 55+ matches
Germinal de Rawson36%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 55 home / 102 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under70
- Over30
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Germinal de Rawson ↓
Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Germinal de Rawson at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.80 · 55 matches
Olimpo Bahia Blanca away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.95 · 102 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Germinal de Rawson attack 1.02 + Olimpo Bahia Blanca defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98
Olimpo Bahia Blanca attack 1.03 + Germinal de Rawson defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Germinal de Rawson at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Germinal de Rawson will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Sarmiento Resistencia
Chaco For Ever
Sportivo Las Parejas
Central Norte
Def. de Pronunciamiento
Douglas Haig
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Crucero Del Norte
Union Sunchales
Boca Unidos
CDJU Gualeguaychu
San Martin Formosa
Sportivo Belgrano
Gimnasia Concepción
Villa Mitre
Deportivo Maipu
Huracan Las Heras
Deportivo Madryn
Juventud Unida Univ.
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
SansinenaOlimpo Bahia Blanca
Cipolletti
Deportivo Camioneros
Estudiantes S.l.
Sportivo Desamparados
Circulo Deportivo
Sportivo Peñarol
Sol de MayoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Germinal de Rawson host Olimpo Bahia Blanca on Sunday, 28 July 2024 at 18:30. The match is part of the Torneo Federal A 2018/2019 season.
Germinal de Rawson 0 – 1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Olimpo Bahia Blanca beat Germinal de Rawson 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on July 28, 2024.
Goals: R. Acosta (8').
The match was played at Estadio El Fortín in Rawson, Provincia del Chubut.