Germinal de Rawson 3–0 Circulo Deportivo

Germinal de Rawson

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Circulo Deportivo

3/23/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 1 - 1Estadio El Fortín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Germinal de Rawson52%

×Draw28%

Circulo Deportivo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germinal de RawsonExpected goals in this matchCirculo Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.70

Germinal de Rawson

1.34

Circulo Deportivo

0.70

Germinal de Rawson creates 91% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 93 away

1.02

creates per match

0.60

0.80

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Germinal de Rawson

1.02

Circulo Deportivo

0.60

allows per match

Germinal de Rawson

0.80

Circulo Deportivo

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germinal de Rawson+0.00on par

Circulo Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germinal de Rawson ↓

Circulo Deportivo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Germinal de Rawson or draw

80%

Germinal de Rawson or Circulo Deportivo

72%

Draw or Circulo Deportivo

48%

Winning margin

Germinal de Rawson wins by 2+

25%

Circulo Deportivo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Germinal de Rawson 1+ goals

74%

Germinal de Rawson 2+ goals

39%

Germinal de Rawson 3+ goals

15%

Circulo Deportivo 1+ goals

50%

Circulo Deportivo 2+ goals

16%

Circulo Deportivo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Germinal de Rawson (draw refunded)

73%

Circulo Deportivo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germinal de Rawson at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.80 · 55 matches

Circulo Deportivo away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germinal de Rawson attack 1.02 + Circulo Deportivo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.34

Circulo Deportivo attack 0.60 + Germinal de Rawson defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Germinal de Rawson scores more

52%

level

28%

Circulo Deportivo scores more

20%

Germinal de Rawson at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Germinal de Rawson will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff