Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Circulo Deportivo vs Germinal de Rawson — Torneo Federal A 2018

Circulo Deportivo
Circulo Deportivo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Germinal de Rawson
Germinal de Rawson
4/4/2026Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 3Estadio Guillermo Trama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Circulo Deportivo44%
×Draw29%
Germinal de Rawson27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Circulo Deportivo
1.22
Germinal de Rawson
0.88

Circulo Deportivo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 55 away

creates per match

Circulo Deportivo
0.97
Germinal de Rawson
0.80

allows per match

Circulo Deportivo
0.96
Germinal de Rawson
1.47

finishing

Circulo Deportivo+0.00on par
Germinal de Rawson+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Circulo Deportivo ↓

Germinal de Rawson →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Circulo Deportivo or draw
73%
Circulo Deportivo or Germinal de Rawson
71%
Draw or Germinal de Rawson
56%

Winning margin

Circulo Deportivo wins by 2+
19%
Germinal de Rawson wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Circulo Deportivo 1+ goals
70%
Circulo Deportivo 2+ goals
34%
Circulo Deportivo 3+ goals
12%
Germinal de Rawson 1+ goals
59%
Germinal de Rawson 2+ goals
22%
Germinal de Rawson 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Circulo Deportivo (draw refunded)
62%
Germinal de Rawson (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Circulo Deportivo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Germinal de Rawson away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Circulo Deportivo attack 0.97 + Germinal de Rawson defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.22

Germinal de Rawson attack 0.80 + Circulo Deportivo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Circulo Deportivo scores more
44%
level
29%
Germinal de Rawson scores more
27%

Circulo Deportivo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Circulo Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Circulo Deportivo 2–1 Germinal de Rawson

Circulo Deportivo beat Germinal de Rawson 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Trama in Comandante Nicanor Otamendi.