Germany W 6–0 Morocco W: Result & Stats

Germany W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Morocco W

L. Schüller 90'

Y. M'Rabet 79' (OG)

H. Aït El Haj 54' (OG)

K. Bühl 46'

A. Popp 39', 11'

7/24/2023

World Cup - Women · Group Stage - 1AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Germany W84%

×Draw12%

Morocco W5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany WExpected goals in this matchMorocco W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

0.50

Germany W

2.75

Morocco W

0.50

Germany W creates 450% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.17

creates per match

0.33

0.67

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Germany W

2.17

Morocco W

0.33

allows per match

Germany W

0.67

Morocco W

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany W+0.00on par

Morocco W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany W ↓

Morocco W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Germany W or draw

95%

Germany W or Morocco W

88%

Draw or Morocco W

16%

Winning margin

Germany W wins by 2+

63%

Morocco W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Germany W 1+ goals

93%

Germany W 2+ goals

75%

Germany W 3+ goals

51%

Morocco W 1+ goals

39%

Morocco W 2+ goals

9%

Morocco W 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Germany W (draw refunded)

95%

Morocco W (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany W at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Morocco W away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany W attack 2.17 + Morocco W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.75

Morocco W attack 0.33 + Germany W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Germany W scores more

84%

level

12%

Morocco W scores more

5%

Germany W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Germany W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Popp

Germany W · F

9.0

Match Events

11'

A. Popp↳ K. Hendrich

39'

A. Popp↳ K. Bühl

46'

K. Bühl

54'

H. Aït El HajOwn goal

64'

N. Anyomi← K. Bühl

65'

L. Schüller← L. Magull

65'

L. Lattwein← M. Leupolz

67'

S. Amani← A. Lahmari

75'

Nicole Anyomi

79'

Y. M'RabetOwn goal

82'

N. El Chad← Y. MRabet

82'

83'

89'

90+4'

90+5'

S. Bouftini← S. Ouzraoui Diki

90'

L. Schüller

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GermanyMorocco

Overview

74%Possession26%

16Total Shots6

6Corners2

9Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots6

7On Target4

5Off Target0

4Blocked2

13Inside Box3

3Outside Box3

Passing

74%Possession26%

694Total Passes244

602Accurate Passes153

87%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

5Offsides4