Germany W 1–2 Colombia W: Result & Stats

Germany W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Colombia W

A. Popp 89' (pen)

M. Vanegas 90+7'

L. Caicedo 52'

7/30/2023

World Cup - Women · Group Stage - 2Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Germany W59%

×Draw23%

Colombia W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany WExpected goals in this matchColombia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.83

Germany W

1.75

Colombia W

0.83

Germany W creates 111% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.17

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Germany W

2.17

Colombia W

1.00

allows per match

Germany W

0.67

Colombia W

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany W+0.00on par

Colombia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany W ↓

Colombia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Germany W or draw

82%

Germany W or Colombia W

77%

Draw or Colombia W

41%

Winning margin

Germany W wins by 2+

34%

Colombia W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Germany W 1+ goals

83%

Germany W 2+ goals

52%

Germany W 3+ goals

25%

Colombia W 1+ goals

56%

Colombia W 2+ goals

20%

Colombia W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Germany W (draw refunded)

77%

Colombia W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany W at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Colombia W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany W attack 2.17 + Colombia W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Colombia W attack 1.00 + Germany W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Germany W scores more

59%

level

23%

Colombia W scores more

18%

Germany W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Germany W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Oberdorf

Germany W · M

8.7

Match Events

46'

S. Nüsken← S. Doorsoun

52'

L. Caicedo↳ J. Carabalí

54'

L. Santos← L. Andrade

56'

Lena Oberdorf

62'

Lorena Bedoya

67'

L. Schüller← L. Magull

67'

D. Ospina← D. Montoya

76'

N. Anyomi← K. Bühl

79'

Diana Carolina Ospina Garcia

88'

Catalina Perez

89'

A. PoppPenalty

90+6'

M. Restrepo← L. Caicedo

90+14'

M. Ramos← J. Carabalí

90+7'

M. Vanegas↳ L. Santos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GermanyColombia

Overview

68%Possession32%

14Total Shots9

4Corners6

8Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots9

2On Target4

4Off Target3

8Blocked2

8Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

68%Possession32%

557Total Passes266

448Accurate Passes153

80%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3