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Germany vs Scotland — Euro Championship 2024

Germany
Germany
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Scotland
Scotland
E. Can 90+3'
N. Füllkrug 68'
K. Havertz 45+1' (pen)
J. Musiala 19'
F. Wirtz 10'
A. Rüdiger 87' (OG)
6/14/2024Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Group A - 1Allianz Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Germany81%
×Draw12%
Scotland7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany
3.13
Scotland
0.88

Germany creates 256% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Germany
3.88
Scotland
0.75

allows per match

Germany
1.00
Scotland
2.38

finishing

Germany+0.00on par
Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany ↓

Scotland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Germany or draw
93%
Germany or Scotland
88%
Draw or Scotland
19%

Winning margin

Germany wins by 2+
62%
Scotland wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Germany 1+ goals
95%
Germany 2+ goals
81%
Germany 3+ goals
59%
Scotland 1+ goals
59%
Scotland 2+ goals
22%
Scotland 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Germany (draw refunded)
92%
Scotland (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany at home — creates 3.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Scotland away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany attack 3.88 + Scotland defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 3.13

Scotland attack 0.75 + Germany defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Germany scores more
81%
level
12%
Scotland scores more
7%

Germany at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Germany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
K. HavertzGermanyGermany · F
8.0

Match Events

10'
F. Wirtz↳ J. Kimmich
19'
J. Musiala↳ K. Havertz
26'
Jamal MusialaPenalty cancelled
31'
Robert Andrich
44'
İlkay GündoğanPenalty confirmed
45'
Ryan Porteous
45+1'
K. HavertzPenalty
46'
P. Groß← R. Andrich
46'
G. Hanley← C. Adams
48'
Anthony Ralston
62'
Jonathan Tah
63'
N. Füllkrug← K. Havertz
63'
L. Sané← F. Wirtz
67'
B. Gilmour← C. McGregor
67'
K. McLean← J. McGinn
68'
N. Füllkrug
74'
T. Müller← J. Musiala
77'
Niclas FüllkrugGoal cancelled
77'
S. McKenna← K. Tierney
80'
E. Can← T. Kroos
82'
L. Shankland← R. Christie
87'
A. RüdigerOwn goal
90+3'
E. Can↳ T. Müller

Possession

73%Germany

Shots

20Germany

Pass accuracy

56%Germany

Statistics

GermanyScotland
Overview
73%Possession27%
20Total Shots1
2.15Expected Goals (xG)0.02
5Corners0
15Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots1
10On Target0
5Off Target1
5Blocked0
10Inside Box1
10Outside Box0
Passing
73%Possession27%
683Total Passes251
643Accurate Passes189
94%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
-1.67Goals Prevented-1.67
Discipline
15Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Germany vs Scotland

Germany beat Scotland 5-1 in Euro Championship on June 14, 2024.

Goals: F. Wirtz (10'), J. Musiala (19'), K. Havertz (45+1' pen), N. Füllkrug (68'), A. Rüdiger (87' o.g.), E. Can (90+3').

Germany controlled possession (73%) and registered 20 shots to 1.

The match was played at Allianz Arena in München.