Germany 2–4 Netherlands: Result & Stats

Germany

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Netherlands

T. Kroos 73' (pen)

S. Gnabry 9'

G. Wijnaldum 90+1'

D. Malen 79'

J. Tah 66' (OG)

F. de Jong 59'

9/6/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Germany35%

×Draw21%

Netherlands44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GermanyExpected goals in this matchNetherlands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.13

Germany

1.88

Netherlands

2.13

Netherlands creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.75

creates per match

3.00

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Germany

2.75

Netherlands

3.00

allows per match

Germany

1.25

Netherlands

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany+0.00on par

Netherlands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany ↓

Netherlands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Germany or draw

56%

Germany or Netherlands

79%

Draw or Netherlands

65%

Winning margin

Germany wins by 2+

18%

Netherlands wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Germany 1+ goals

85%

Germany 2+ goals

56%

Germany 3+ goals

29%

Netherlands 1+ goals

88%

Netherlands 2+ goals

63%

Netherlands 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Germany (draw refunded)

44%

Netherlands (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Netherlands away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany attack 2.75 + Netherlands defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Netherlands attack 3.00 + Germany defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Germany scores more

35%

level

21%

Netherlands scores more

44%

Netherlands at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Netherlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Depay

Netherlands · F

8.5

Match Events

9'

35'

35'

49'

58'

D. Pröpper← D. Dumfries

58'

D. Malen← M. de Roon

59'

F. de Jong↳ R. Babel

61'

K. Havertz← T. Werner

61'

İ. Gündoğan← M. Reus

66'

J. TahOwn goal

72'

Frenkie de Jong

73'

T. KroosPenalty

79'

D. Malen↳ G. Wijnaldum

81'

N. Aké← R. Babel

84'

J. Brandt← M. Ginter

90+1'

G. Wijnaldum↳ M. Depay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GermanyNetherlands

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots16

2Corners4

7Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots16

5On Target9

6Off Target3

1Blocked4

9Inside Box12

3Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

532Total Passes544

462Accurate Passes479

87%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0