Germany 7–1 Latvia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GermanyExpected goals in this matchLatvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.02

Germany

1.80

Latvia

1.02

Germany creates 76% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

2.10

creates per match

1.00

1.05

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Germany

2.10

Latvia

1.00

allows per match

Germany

1.05

Latvia

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany+0.00on par

Latvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany ↓

Latvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Germany or draw

79%

Germany or Latvia

77%

Draw or Latvia

44%

Winning margin

Germany wins by 2+

31%

Latvia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Germany 1+ goals

83%

Germany 2+ goals

54%

Germany 3+ goals

27%

Latvia 1+ goals

64%

Latvia 2+ goals

27%

Latvia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Germany (draw refunded)

72%

Latvia (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Latvia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany attack 2.10 + Latvia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Latvia attack 1.00 + Germany defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Germany scores more

56%

level

23%

Latvia scores more

21%

Germany at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Germany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Arturs Zjuzins

19'

R. Gosens↳ K. Havertz

21'

27'

35'

35'

39'

R. OzolsOwn goal

45'

S. Gnabry↳ M. Hummels

46'

T. Werner← K. Havertz

46'

L. Sané← S. Gnabry

46'

I. Tarasovs← M. Ošs

46'

V. Maksimenko← D. Ikaunieks

50'

T. Werner↳ J. Kimmich

61'

C. Günter← R. Gosens

61'

E. Can← İ. Gündoğan

61'

N. Süle← A. Rüdiger

61'

R. Krollis← K. Kārkliņš

68'

A. Jaunzems← A. Cigaņiks

68'

A. Saveljevs← A. Zjuzins

75'

A. Saveljevs↳ R. Krollis

76'

J. Musiala← T. Müller

76'

L. Sané↳ T. Müller

80'

R. Varslavāns← R. Uldriķis

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GermanyLatvia

Overview

72%Possession28%

19Total Shots3

4Corners1

10Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots3

10On Target2

9Off Target1

Passing

72%Possession28%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1