Germany 0–1 Hungary: Result & Stats

Germany

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hungary

Á. Szalai 17'

9/23/2022

UEFA Nations League · League A - 5Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Germany55%

×Draw23%

Hungary22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GermanyExpected goals in this matchHungary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.08

Germany

1.82

Hungary

1.08

Germany creates 69% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

2.18

creates per match

1.08

1.09

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Germany

2.18

Hungary

1.08

allows per match

Germany

1.09

Hungary

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany+0.00on par

Hungary+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany ↓

Hungary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Germany or draw

78%

Germany or Hungary

77%

Draw or Hungary

45%

Winning margin

Germany wins by 2+

31%

Hungary wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Germany 1+ goals

84%

Germany 2+ goals

54%

Germany 3+ goals

27%

Hungary 1+ goals

66%

Hungary 2+ goals

29%

Hungary 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Germany (draw refunded)

71%

Hungary (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Hungary away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany attack 2.18 + Hungary defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.82

Hungary attack 1.08 + Germany defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Germany scores more

55%

level

23%

Hungary scores more

22%

Germany at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Germany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Kimmich

Germany · M

8.0

Match Events

17'

Á. Szalai↳ D. Szoboszlai

25'

Joshua Kimmich

40'

Ádám Szalai

46'

T. Kehrer← S. Gnabry

67'

L. Kleinheisler← D. Gazdag

67'

M. Ádám← Á. Szalai

69'

J. Musiala← İ. Gündoğan

70'

K. Havertz← T. Werner

78'

C. Styles← Á. Nagy

85'

L. Nmecha← T. Müller

85'

L. Négo← D. Szoboszlai

90'

Antonio Rüdiger

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GermanyHungary

Overview

72%Possession28%

10Total Shots7

2Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots7

3On Target3

4Off Target1

3Blocked3

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

72%Possession28%

780Total Passes295

682Accurate Passes214

87%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3