Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Germany vs Belarus — Euro Championship 2024

Germany
Germany
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Belarus
Belarus
T. Kroos 83', 55'
L. Goretzka 49'
M. Ginter 41'
11/16/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 9Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Germany82%
×Draw11%
Belarus6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany
3.14
Belarus
0.80

Germany creates 293% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Germany
3.88
Belarus
0.60

allows per match

Germany
1.00
Belarus
2.40

finishing

Germany+0.00on par
Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany ↓

Belarus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Germany or draw
94%
Germany or Belarus
89%
Draw or Belarus
18%

Winning margin

Germany wins by 2+
64%
Belarus wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Germany 1+ goals
95%
Germany 2+ goals
81%
Germany 3+ goals
59%
Belarus 1+ goals
55%
Belarus 2+ goals
19%
Belarus 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Germany (draw refunded)
93%
Belarus (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany at home — creates 3.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Belarus away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany attack 3.88 + Belarus defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 3.14

Belarus attack 0.60 + Germany defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Germany scores more
82%
level
11%
Belarus scores more
6%

Germany at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Germany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
T. KroosGermanyGermany · M
10.0

Match Events

41'
M. Ginter↳ S. Gnabry
49'
L. Goretzka↳ T. Kroos
55'
T. Kroos↳ M. Ginter
68'
J. Brandt← T. Werner
68'
V. Lisakovich← D. Laptev
75'
Robin Koch
78'
M. Skavysh← Y. Kovalev
83'
T. Kroos↳ İ. Gündoğan
84'
L. Waldschmidt← S. Gnabry
84'
D. Bessmertny← P. Nekhajchik
90+1'
S. Rudy← L. Waldschmidt

Possession

71%Germany

Shots

31Germany

Pass accuracy

56%Germany

Statistics

GermanyBelarus
Overview
71%Possession29%
31Total Shots13
11Corners2
12Fouls7
Shots
31Total Shots13
10On Target5
13Off Target5
8Blocked3
21Inside Box8
10Outside Box5
Passing
71%Possession29%
806Total Passes331
713Accurate Passes233
88%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Euro Championship: Germany 4–0 Belarus

Germany beat Belarus 4-0 in Euro Championship on November 16, 2019.

Goals: M. Ginter (41'), L. Goretzka (49'), T. Kroos (55', 83').

Germany controlled possession (71%) and registered 31 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK in Mönchengladbach.