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Germany U23 W vs USA U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Germany U23 W
Germany U23 W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
USA U23 W
USA U23 W
T. Mahmoud 87'
S. Weidauer 38'
K. Shrader 41' (pen)
6/2/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · FriendliesStadion im Brotzinger Tal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Germany U23 W44%
×Draw22%
USA U23 W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany U23 W
1.89
USA U23 W
1.63

Germany U23 W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Germany U23 W
2.27
USA U23 W
2.17

allows per match

Germany U23 W
1.09
USA U23 W
1.50

finishing

Germany U23 W+0.00on par
USA U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U23 W ↓

USA U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Germany U23 W or draw
66%
Germany U23 W or USA U23 W
78%
Draw or USA U23 W
56%

Winning margin

Germany U23 W wins by 2+
24%
USA U23 W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Germany U23 W 1+ goals
85%
Germany U23 W 2+ goals
56%
Germany U23 W 3+ goals
29%
USA U23 W 1+ goals
80%
USA U23 W 2+ goals
48%
USA U23 W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Germany U23 W (draw refunded)
57%
USA U23 W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U23 W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

USA U23 W away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U23 W attack 2.27 + USA U23 W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.89

USA U23 W attack 2.17 + Germany U23 W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Germany U23 W scores more
44%
level
22%
USA U23 W scores more
34%

Germany U23 W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Germany U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
S. Weidauer
41'
K. ShraderPenalty
87'
T. Mahmoud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germany U23 W vs USA U23 W

Germany U23 W beat USA U23 W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on June 2, 2025.

Goals: S. Weidauer (38'), K. Shrader (41' pen), T. Mahmoud (87').

The match was played at Stadion im Brotzinger Tal in Pforzheim.