Germany U23 W 1–4 Netherlands U23 W: Result & Stats

Germany U23 W

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Netherlands U23 W

S. Martinez 63'

L. Keukelaar 90'

D. Tolhoek 71', 69' (pen)

L. de Keijzer 15'

2/24/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Germany U23 W44%

×Draw24%

Netherlands U23 W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U23 WExpected goals in this matchNetherlands U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.38

Germany U23 W

1.64

Netherlands U23 W

1.38

Germany U23 W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.27

creates per match

1.67

1.09

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Germany U23 W

2.27

Netherlands U23 W

1.67

allows per match

Germany U23 W

1.09

Netherlands U23 W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U23 W+0.00on par

Netherlands U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U23 W ↓

Netherlands U23 W →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Germany U23 W or draw

68%

Germany U23 W or Netherlands U23 W

76%

Draw or Netherlands U23 W

56%

Winning margin

Germany U23 W wins by 2+

22%

Netherlands U23 W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Germany U23 W 1+ goals

81%

Germany U23 W 2+ goals

49%

Germany U23 W 3+ goals

23%

Netherlands U23 W 1+ goals

75%

Netherlands U23 W 2+ goals

40%

Netherlands U23 W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Germany U23 W (draw refunded)

57%

Netherlands U23 W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Germany U23 W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Netherlands U23 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Germany U23 W attack 2.27 + Netherlands U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Netherlands U23 W attack 1.67 + Germany U23 W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Germany U23 W scores more

44%

level

24%

Netherlands U23 W scores more

32%

Germany U23 W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Germany U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

L. de Keijzer

63'

S. Martinez

69'

D. TolhoekPenalty

71'

D. Tolhoek

90'

L. Keukelaar

Germany

Netherlands

⚽

⚽2

⚽

Germany U23 W substitutes

9Martinez

Friendlies Women: Germany U23 W 1–4 Netherlands U23 W

Netherlands U23 W beat Germany U23 W 4-1 in Friendlies Women on February 24, 2025.

Goals: L. de Keijzer (15'), S. Martinez (63'), D. Tolhoek (69' pen, 71'), L. Keukelaar (90').

Germany U23 W vs Netherlands U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Germany U23 W 1–4 Netherlands U23 W