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Germany U23 W vs France U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Germany U23 W
Germany U23 W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
France U23 W
France U23 W
12/1/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Germany U23 W74%
×Draw18%
France U23 W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany U23 W
2.13
France U23 W
0.55

Germany U23 W creates 287% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Germany U23 W
2.27
France U23 W
0.00

allows per match

Germany U23 W
1.09
France U23 W
2.00

finishing

Germany U23 W+0.00on par
France U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U23 W ↓

France U23 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Germany U23 W or draw
92%
Germany U23 W or France U23 W
82%
Draw or France U23 W
26%

Winning margin

Germany U23 W wins by 2+
49%
France U23 W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Germany U23 W 1+ goals
88%
Germany U23 W 2+ goals
63%
Germany U23 W 3+ goals
35%
France U23 W 1+ goals
42%
France U23 W 2+ goals
11%
France U23 W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Germany U23 W (draw refunded)
90%
France U23 W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U23 W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

France U23 W away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U23 W attack 2.27 + France U23 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

France U23 W attack 0.00 + Germany U23 W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Germany U23 W scores more
74%
level
18%
France U23 W scores more
8%

Germany U23 W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Germany U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Germany U23 W 2–0 France U23 W

Germany U23 W beat France U23 W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on December 1, 2025.