Germany U23 W 4–2 Belgium U23 W: Result & Stats

Germany U23 W

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Belgium U23 W

L. E. Birkholz 90', 82', 55'

S. Weidauer 12'

A. Bosteels 60'

K. Helsen 31'

3/6/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Germany U23 W66%

×Draw20%

Belgium U23 W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U23 WExpected goals in this matchBelgium U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.88

Germany U23 W

2.13

Belgium U23 W

0.88

Germany U23 W creates 142% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

2.27

creates per match

0.67

1.09

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Germany U23 W

2.27

Belgium U23 W

0.67

allows per match

Germany U23 W

1.09

Belgium U23 W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U23 W+0.00on par

Belgium U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U23 W ↓

Belgium U23 W →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Germany U23 W or draw

86%

Germany U23 W or Belgium U23 W

80%

Draw or Belgium U23 W

34%

Winning margin

Germany U23 W wins by 2+

42%

Belgium U23 W wins by 2+

Team goals

Germany U23 W 1+ goals

88%

Germany U23 W 2+ goals

63%

Germany U23 W 3+ goals

35%

Belgium U23 W 1+ goals

59%

Belgium U23 W 2+ goals

22%

Belgium U23 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Germany U23 W (draw refunded)

82%

Belgium U23 W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Germany U23 W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Belgium U23 W away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Germany U23 W attack 2.27 + Belgium U23 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Belgium U23 W attack 0.67 + Germany U23 W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Germany U23 W scores more

66%

level

20%

Belgium U23 W scores more

14%

Germany U23 W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Germany U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

31'

55'

60'

82'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff