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Germany U19 W vs Norway U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Germany U19 W
Germany U19 W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Norway U19 W
Norway U19 W
E. Terakaj 80' (pen)
M. Schneider 62'
L. Wrede 33'
10/24/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Germany U19 W61%
×Draw23%
Norway U19 W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany U19 W
1.81
Norway U19 W
0.81

Germany U19 W creates 123% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Germany U19 W
1.88
Norway U19 W
1.00

allows per match

Germany U19 W
0.63
Norway U19 W
1.75

finishing

Germany U19 W+0.00on par
Norway U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 W ↓

Norway U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Germany U19 W or draw
84%
Germany U19 W or Norway U19 W
77%
Draw or Norway U19 W
39%

Winning margin

Germany U19 W wins by 2+
35%
Norway U19 W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Germany U19 W 1+ goals
84%
Germany U19 W 2+ goals
54%
Germany U19 W 3+ goals
27%
Norway U19 W 1+ goals
56%
Norway U19 W 2+ goals
19%
Norway U19 W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 W (draw refunded)
79%
Norway U19 W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Norway U19 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 W attack 1.88 + Norway U19 W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Norway U19 W attack 1.00 + Germany U19 W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Germany U19 W scores more
61%
level
23%
Norway U19 W scores more
16%

Germany U19 W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Germany U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
L. Wrede
62'
M. Schneider
80'
E. TerakajPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Germany U19 W 3–0 Norway U19 W

Germany U19 W beat Norway U19 W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on October 24, 2025.

Goals: L. Wrede (33'), M. Schneider (62'), E. Terakaj (80' pen).