Germany U19 2–0 Turkey U19: Result & Stats

Germany U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Turkey U19

D. Pejčinović 88'

L. Marino 28'

3/26/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Gradski Stadion kraj Sajmišta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Germany U1954%

×Draw22%

Turkey U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U19Expected goals in this matchTurkey U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.22

Germany U19

1.93

Turkey U19

1.22

Germany U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

2.52

creates per match

1.33

1.10

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Germany U19

2.52

Turkey U19

1.33

allows per match

Germany U19

1.10

Turkey U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U19+0.00on par

Turkey U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 ↓

Turkey U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Germany U19 or draw

76%

Germany U19 or Turkey U19

78%

Draw or Turkey U19

46%

Winning margin

Germany U19 wins by 2+

31%

Turkey U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Germany U19 1+ goals

85%

Germany U19 2+ goals

57%

Germany U19 3+ goals

30%

Turkey U19 1+ goals

70%

Turkey U19 2+ goals

34%

Turkey U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Turkey U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Turkey U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 attack 2.52 + Turkey U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.93

Turkey U19 attack 1.33 + Germany U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Germany U19 scores more

54%

level

22%

Turkey U19 scores more

24%

Germany U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

L. Marino

46'

E. Uzun← A. Bayram

46'

H. Özdemir← A. Gulasi

46'

51'

58'

62'

62'

64'

66'

74'

E. Başyiğit← E. Arıkan

88'

D. Pejčinović

Germany

Turkey

1

▼

14

20

2

3

▼

Yılmaz

8

Gezek

18

▼

Gulasi

17

▼

Bayram

13

▼

5

9

12

4

15

2

▼

13

6

14

10

8

⚽

Marino

18

⚽

Pejčinovi

11

▼

Maza

Manager: C. Wörns

62'▲L. Ulrich←▼I. Maza

64'▲M. Grüger←▼E. Baum

Germany U19 substitutes

17Ulrich19Grüger1Seimen16Kojić3Wagner5Klemens

Manager: S. Başar

46'▲E. Uzun←▼A. Bayram

46'▲H. Özdemir←▼A. Gulasi

46'▲M. Bayram←▼D. Ertaş

66'▲E. Bars←▼B. Yılmaz

74'▲E. Başyiğit←▼E. Arıkan

Turkey U19 substitutes

10Uzun19Özdemir23Bayram11Bars15Başyiğit4Kayalı7İnanoğlu16Sertkaya