Germany U19 2–2 Sweden U19: Result & Stats

Germany U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sweden U19

M. Culbreath 80'

O. Stange 36'

Y. Geiger 90'

A. Lahdo 68'

3/25/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1maxworx Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Germany U1958%

×Draw21%

Sweden U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U19Expected goals in this matchSweden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.20

Germany U19

2.12

Sweden U19

1.20

Germany U19 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

2.52

creates per match

1.29

1.10

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Germany U19

2.52

Sweden U19

1.29

allows per match

Germany U19

1.10

Sweden U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U19+0.00on par

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 ↓

Sweden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Germany U19 or draw

79%

Germany U19 or Sweden U19

79%

Draw or Sweden U19

42%

Winning margin

Germany U19 wins by 2+

36%

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Germany U19 1+ goals

88%

Germany U19 2+ goals

62%

Germany U19 3+ goals

35%

Sweden U19 1+ goals

70%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

34%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Sweden U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 attack 2.52 + Sweden U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.12

Sweden U19 attack 1.29 + Germany U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Germany U19 scores more

58%

level

21%

Sweden U19 scores more

21%

Germany U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

A. Andersson← D. Isso

36'

O. Stange

62'

L. Erlein← K. Koscierski

68'

A. Lahdo

72'

M. Wallentowitz← A. Licina

72'

M. Catovic← B. Mamuzah Lum

77'

O. Stange

77'

O. Nordvall← L. Arrhov

77'

F. Bozicevic← O. Kapsimalis

80'

M. Culbreath↳ O. Stange

86'

90'

90'

90'

Germany

Sweden

1

2

4

3

5

▼

Tuka

18

⚽

Geiger

6

⚽

Lahdo

10

▼

Arrhov

7

Jonsson

19

▼

Isso

20

▼

Kapsimali

1

Hellstern

3

▼

5

4

2

8

10

6

▼

Lum

11

▼

Licina

9

⚽A

▼

Stange

7

⚽

Culbreath

Manager: Hanno Balitsch

62'▲L. Erlein←▼K. Koscierski

72'▲M. Wallentowitz←▼A. Licina

72'▲M. Catovic←▼B. Mamuzah Lum

90'▲J. Fields←▼O. Stange

Germany U19 substitutes

12Kamga13Wagner14Nink15Erlein16Swider17Wallentowitz18Catovic19Fields20Poller

Manager: A. Pettersson

34'▲A. Andersson←▼D. Isso

77'▲O. Nordvall←▼L. Arrhov

77'▲F. Bozicevic←▼O. Kapsimalis

86'▲S. Oppong←▼M. Tuka

Sweden U19 substitutes

12Persson8Nordin9Andersson11Oppong13Sandberg14Ljungqvist16Nordvall17Bozicevic

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Germany U19 2–2 Sweden U19

Germany U19 and Sweden U19 drew 2-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2026.

Goals: O. Stange (36'), A. Lahdo (68'), M. Culbreath (80'), Y. Geiger (90').

The match was played at maxworx Sportpark in Dreieich.

Germany U19 vs Sweden U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Germany U19 2–2 Sweden U19