Germany U19 vs Norway U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Germany U1942%
Norway U1938%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 8 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over80
- Under20
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes78
- No22
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Germany U19 ↓
Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Germany U19 at home — creates 3.13, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches
Norway U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Germany U19 attack 3.13 + Norway U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.20
Norway U19 attack 1.67 + Germany U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Germany U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Norway U19 substitutes
Head to Head
Germany U19 host Norway U19 on Saturday, 24 March 2018 at 11:00. The match is part of the UEFA U19 Championship 2019/2020 season.
UEFA U19 Championship: Germany U19 2–5 Norway U19
Norway U19 beat Germany U19 5-2 in UEFA U19 Championship on March 24, 2018.
Goals: E. Håland (7', 29'), J. Beste (20'), L. Oestigaard (35'), H. Vetlesen (43'), A. Akkaynak (63' pen), S. Nordli (71').
The match was played at Stadion Große Wiese in Arnsberg.