Germany U19 3–1 North Macedonia U19: Result & Stats

Germany U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

North Macedonia U19

T. Bischof 75', 67'

D. Pejčinović 57'

M. Gjorgievski 63'

10/14/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Germany U1967%

×Draw18%

North Macedonia U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U19Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.02

Germany U19

2.37

North Macedonia U19

1.02

Germany U19 creates 132% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

2.52

creates per match

0.93

1.10

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Germany U19

2.52

North Macedonia U19

0.93

allows per match

Germany U19

1.10

North Macedonia U19

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U19+0.00on par

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Germany U19 or draw

85%

Germany U19 or North Macedonia U19

82%

Draw or North Macedonia U19

33%

Winning margin

Germany U19 wins by 2+

44%

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Germany U19 1+ goals

91%

Germany U19 2+ goals

68%

Germany U19 3+ goals

42%

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

64%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

27%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

82%

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 attack 2.52 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.37

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.93 + Germany U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Germany U19 scores more

67%

level

18%

North Macedonia U19 scores more

15%

Germany U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

M. Komur

57'

D. Pejčinović

62'

A. Meljichi← M. Stojilevski

62'

A. Nuhija← A. Zendelovski

62'

L. Kaba← M. Elmas

63'

M. Gjorgievski

67'

T. Bischof

72'

L. Muhtari← Z. Nazifi

73'

73'

75'

77'

77'

D. Adili← M. Gjorgievski

89'

M. Krattenmacher← D. Pejčinović

89'

S. Di Benedetto← T. Bischof

90'

D. Adili

Germany

North

1

Dzhekov

6

Markovski

14

Arizankos

5

▼

Stojilevs

8

▼

Zendelovs

7

▼

16

3

11

10

⚽

▼

Gjorgievs

9

▼

1

15

2

5

▼

Münz

3

▼

Wagner

20

Lubach

10

⚽2

▼

Bischof

4

Bornschei

8

Kömür

13

▼

Suso

18

⚽

▼

Pejčinovi

Manager: C. Wörns

73'▲L. Marino←▼K. Suso

73'▲S. Walde←▼M. Wagner

77'▲N. Barthel←▼R. Münz

89'▲M. Krattenmacher←▼D. Pejčinović

89'▲S. Di Benedetto←▼T. Bischof

Germany U19 substitutes

19Marino17Walde14Barthel9Krattenmacher16Benedetto12Hermann7Opitz6Grüger11Becker

Manager: N. Sabani

62'▲A. Meljichi←▼M. Stojilevski

62'▲A. Nuhija←▼A. Zendelovski

62'▲L. Kaba←▼M. Elmas

72'▲L. Muhtari←▼Z. Nazifi

77'▲D. Adili←▼M. Gjorgievski

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

15Meljichi20Nuhija17Kaba13Muhtari2Adili4Bamijoko12Stojanovikj18Fetai19Velichkovski