Germany U19 6–0 Kazakhstan U19: Result & Stats

Germany U19

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Kazakhstan U19

L. Bornschein 77'

D. Pejčinović 69', 30'

M. Kömür 60', 45'

R. Lubach 25'

10/11/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Germany U1973%

×Draw16%

Kazakhstan U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U19Expected goals in this matchKazakhstan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

0.98

Germany U19

2.69

Kazakhstan U19

0.98

Germany U19 creates 174% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

2.52

creates per match

0.86

1.10

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Germany U19

2.52

Kazakhstan U19

0.86

allows per match

Germany U19

1.10

Kazakhstan U19

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U19+0.00on par

Kazakhstan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 ↓

Kazakhstan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Germany U19 or draw

89%

Germany U19 or Kazakhstan U19

84%

Draw or Kazakhstan U19

27%

Winning margin

Germany U19 wins by 2+

52%

Kazakhstan U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Germany U19 1+ goals

93%

Germany U19 2+ goals

74%

Germany U19 3+ goals

49%

Kazakhstan U19 1+ goals

62%

Kazakhstan U19 2+ goals

26%

Kazakhstan U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

86%

Kazakhstan U19 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Kazakhstan U19 away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 attack 2.52 + Kazakhstan U19 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.69

Kazakhstan U19 attack 0.86 + Germany U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Germany U19 scores more

73%

level

16%

Kazakhstan U19 scores more

11%

Germany U19 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

25'

30'

45'

46'

I. Abil← B. Abdullayev

56'

R. Münz← N. Barthel

60'

M. Kömür

65'

d. Umirzak← G. Valgushev

65'

T. Agimanov← A. Litosh

69'

D. Pejčinović

73'

L. Marino← K. Suso

73'

M. Krattenmacher← M. Kömür

73'

V. Becker← M. Wagner

77'

L. Bornschein

82'

L. Opitz← E. Baum

83'

A. Gabiden← I. Abil

83'

R. Zhankhaev← T. Kurbanov

84'

D. Umirzak

90+5'

Z. Mukhametkhanov

Germany

Kazakhstan

1

Aliakbar

6

Bizhan

3

▼

Kurbanov

2

Zakharche

17

▼

Abdullaye

23

Mukhametk

21

▼

Valgushev

15

Nurymbet

9

▼

20

13

1

15

2

▼

Baum

14

▼

Barthel

3

▼

Wagner

20

⚽

Lubach

10

Bischof

4

⚽

Bornschei

8

⚽2

▼

Kömür

13

▼

Suso

18

⚽2

Pejčinovi

Manager: C. Wörns

56'▲R. Münz←▼N. Barthel

73'▲L. Marino←▼K. Suso

73'▲M. Krattenmacher←▼M. Kömür

73'▲V. Becker←▼M. Wagner

82'▲L. Opitz←▼E. Baum

Germany U19 substitutes

5Münz19Marino9Krattenmacher11Becker7Opitz12Hermann17Walde6Grüger16Benedetto

Manager: A. Kuznetsov

46'▲I. Abil←▼B. Abdullayev

65'▲d. Umirzak←▼G. Valgushev

65'▲T. Agimanov←▼A. Litosh

83'▲A. Gabiden←▼I. Abil

83'▲R. Zhankhaev←▼T. Kurbanov

Kazakhstan U19 substitutes

22Abil10Umirzak7Agimanov18Gabiden14Zhankhaev12Rikhard4Sakenov5Amirzhan19Serikuly

Match Recap: Germany U19 vs Kazakhstan U19

Germany U19 beat Kazakhstan U19 6-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 11, 2023.

Goals: R. Lubach (25'), D. Pejčinović (30', 69'), M. Kömür (45', 60'), L. Bornschein (77').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Inowrocław.

Germany U19 vs Kazakhstan U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Germany U19 vs Kazakhstan U19