Germany U19 4–1 Faroe Islands U19: Result & Stats

Germany U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Faroe Islands U19

A. Sieb 90'

A. Kade 79'

E. Gedikli 73'

M. Kesik 3'

Á. Samuelsen 53'

11/10/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Pampeloponnisiako Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Germany U1982%

×Draw12%

Faroe Islands U196%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U19Expected goals in this matchFaroe Islands U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

0.60

Germany U19

2.80

Faroe Islands U19

0.60

Germany U19 creates 367% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

2.52

creates per match

0.09

1.10

allows per match

3.09

creates per match

Germany U19

2.52

Faroe Islands U19

0.09

allows per match

Germany U19

1.10

Faroe Islands U19

3.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U19+0.00on par

Faroe Islands U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 ↓

Faroe Islands U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Germany U19 or draw

94%

Germany U19 or Faroe Islands U19

88%

Draw or Faroe Islands U19

18%

Winning margin

Germany U19 wins by 2+

62%

Faroe Islands U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Germany U19 1+ goals

94%

Germany U19 2+ goals

76%

Germany U19 3+ goals

52%

Faroe Islands U19 1+ goals

45%

Faroe Islands U19 2+ goals

12%

Faroe Islands U19 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

94%

Faroe Islands U19 (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Faroe Islands U19 away — creates 0.09, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 attack 2.52 + Faroe Islands U19 defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.80

Faroe Islands U19 attack 0.09 + Germany U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Germany U19 scores more

82%

level

12%

Faroe Islands U19 scores more

6%

Germany U19 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Kesik

53'

Á. Samuelsen

62'

A. Kade← B. Bobzien

62'

D. Lütke-Frie← R. Wagner

62'

E. Gedikli← G. Gürpüz

62'

M. Kostka← K. Kraft

71'

J. Lassesen← Á. Samuelsen

71'

P. Kallsberg← O. Bárðarson

73'

E. Gedikli

77'

B. Hentze← M. Agnarsson

77'

J. Nielsen← E. Joensen

79'

S. Mariusarson← H. Sørensen

79'

A. Kade

81'

D. Herold← L. Günther

90'

A. Sieb

Germany

Faroe

12

Kruuse

2

Poulsen

7

▼

Bárðarson

4

Rusborg

14

▼

17

3

5

8

▼

Joensen

10

▼

Sørensen

20

⚽

▼

Samuelsen

1

Urbig

4

Arrey-Mbi

2

▼

Kraft

15

Riedel

6

⚽

Kesik

8

▼

Wagner

10

▼

Gürpüz

9

⚽

Sieb

3

▼

Günther

11

▼

Bobzien

7

Amyn

Manager: H. Wolf

62'▲A. Kade←▼B. Bobzien

62'▲D. Lütke-Frie←▼R. Wagner

62'▲E. Gedikli←▼G. Gürpüz

62'▲M. Kostka←▼K. Kraft

81'▲D. Herold←▼L. Günther

Germany U19 substitutes

17Kade16Lütke-Frie19Gedikli14Kostka13Herold18Hettwer5Rosenfelder12Ernst20Jessen

Manager: S. Clementsen

71'▲J. Lassesen←▼Á. Samuelsen

71'▲P. Kallsberg←▼O. Bárðarson

77'▲B. Hentze←▼M. Agnarsson

77'▲J. Nielsen←▼E. Joensen

79'▲S. Mariusarson←▼H. Sørensen

Faroe Islands U19 substitutes

19Lassesen11Kallsberg6Hentze9Nielsen13Mariusarson16Petersen1Arngrímsson18Thomsen15Kalsø

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Germany U19 4–1 Faroe Islands U19

Germany U19 beat Faroe Islands U19 4-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 10, 2021.

Goals: M. Kesik (3'), Á. Samuelsen (53'), E. Gedikli (73'), A. Kade (79'), A. Sieb (90').

The match was played at Pampeloponnisiako Stadio in Patras.

Germany U19 vs Faroe Islands U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Germany U19 4–1 Faroe Islands U19