Germany U19 3–1 Cyprus U19: Result & Stats

Germany U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cyprus U19

P. Brunner 57', 29' (pen)

N. Darvich 38' (pen)

K. Poursaitidis 72'

11/15/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Germany U1969%

×Draw19%

Cyprus U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U19Expected goals in this matchCyprus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.84

Germany U19

2.22

Cyprus U19

0.84

Germany U19 creates 164% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

2.52

creates per match

0.58

1.10

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Germany U19

2.52

Cyprus U19

0.58

allows per match

Germany U19

1.10

Cyprus U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U19+0.00on par

Cyprus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 ↓

Cyprus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Germany U19 or draw

87%

Germany U19 or Cyprus U19

81%

Draw or Cyprus U19

31%

Winning margin

Germany U19 wins by 2+

45%

Cyprus U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Germany U19 1+ goals

89%

Germany U19 2+ goals

65%

Germany U19 3+ goals

38%

Cyprus U19 1+ goals

57%

Cyprus U19 2+ goals

21%

Cyprus U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

84%

Cyprus U19 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Cyprus U19 away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 attack 2.52 + Cyprus U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.22

Cyprus U19 attack 0.58 + Germany U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Germany U19 scores more

69%

level

19%

Cyprus U19 scores more

13%

Germany U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

P. BrunnerPenalty

38'

A. Nikolaou

38'

N. DarvichPenalty

46'

K. Poursaitidis← D. Vasiliou

55'

D. Tzouliou

56'

S. Sofokleous← K. Panagiotou

57'

P. Brunner

63'

C. Herrmann← S. El Mala

63'

J. Malanga← P. Brunner

63'

R. Ramšak← M. Moerstedt

71'

A. Ouédraogo← B. Dárdai

72'

K. Poursaitidis

73'

C. Poursaitidis

79'

A. Giannakou← G. Sokratous

79'

K. Lytras← A. Nikolaou

79'

P. Markou← P. Angeli

81'

E. da Silva Moreira← T. Bulut

90+2'

C. Poursaitidis

90+2'

C. Poursaitidis

Germany

Cyprus

12

Ortelli

3

▼

Nikolaou

19

▼

5

16

8

14

▼

Angeli

10

Kattirtzi

9

Juliou

20

▼

Vasiliou

18

▼

Panagioto

1

Schmitt

3

Kabar

13

▼

Bulut

5

Dal

4

Jeltsch

8

▼

Dárdai

10

⚽

Darvich

16

Kritzer

9

▼

Moerstedt

7

⚽2

▼

Brunner

11

▼

Mala

Manager: H. Balitsch

63'▲C. Herrmann←▼S. El Mala

63'▲J. Malanga←▼P. Brunner

63'▲R. Ramšak←▼M. Moerstedt

71'▲A. Ouédraogo←▼B. Dárdai

81'▲E. da Silva Moreira←▼T. Bulut

Germany U19 substitutes

17Herrmann19Malanga20Ramšak18Ouédraogo2Moreira15Decker12Heide14Hennig6Osawe

Manager: V. Koulountis

46'▲K. Poursaitidis←▼D. Vasiliou

56'▲S. Sofokleous←▼K. Panagiotou

79'▲A. Giannakou←▼G. Sokratous

79'▲K. Lytras←▼A. Nikolaou

79'▲P. Markou←▼P. Angeli

Cyprus U19 substitutes

11Poursaitidis7Sofokleous4Giannakou13Lytras6Markou15Andreou1Pishias17Kattirtzis2Paschali

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Germany U19 3–1 Cyprus U19

Germany U19 beat Cyprus U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2024.

Goals: P. Brunner (29' pen, 57'), N. Darvich (38' pen), K. Poursaitidis (72').

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.

Germany U19 vs Cyprus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Germany U19 3–1 Cyprus U19