Germany U19 5–0 Armenia U19: Result & Stats

Germany U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Armenia U19

L. Ullrich 89'

K. Topp 79', 69' (pen)

M. Damar 33'

B. Gruda 24'

9/21/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1GWG-Stadion A-Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Germany U1968%

×Draw17%

Armenia U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U19Expected goals in this matchArmenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.05

Germany U19

2.48

Armenia U19

1.05

Germany U19 creates 136% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

2.52

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Germany U19

2.52

Armenia U19

1.00

allows per match

Germany U19

1.10

Armenia U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U19+0.00on par

Armenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 ↓

Armenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Germany U19 or draw

86%

Germany U19 or Armenia U19

83%

Draw or Armenia U19

32%

Winning margin

Germany U19 wins by 2+

46%

Armenia U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Germany U19 1+ goals

92%

Germany U19 2+ goals

70%

Germany U19 3+ goals

44%

Armenia U19 1+ goals

65%

Armenia U19 2+ goals

28%

Armenia U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Armenia U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Armenia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 attack 2.52 + Armenia U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.48

Armenia U19 attack 1.00 + Germany U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Germany U19 scores more

68%

level

17%

Armenia U19 scores more

14%

Germany U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

B. Gruda

33'

M. Damar

46'

M. Frauendorf← M. Damar

50'

K. Davtyan

52'

A. Markosian

59'

H. Sargsyan← H. Tatosyan

66'

J. Diehl← Y. Kabadayı

66'

K. Topp← S. Marino

66'

E. Papikyan← V. Tovmasyan

67'

A. Eloyan← A. Mkrtychyan

69'

K. ToppPenalty

70'

71'

78'

79'

82'

M. Wenig← D. Bunk

88'

N. Hovhannisyan← K. Davtyan

88'

K. Hovhannisyan← G. Papian

89'

L. Ullrich

Germany

Armenia

1

4

14

5

11

17

19

▼

Tovmasyan

8

▼

Tatosyan

6

▼

Papian

10

▼

Davtyan

7

▼

1

5

19

3

⚽

Ullrich

15

Quarshie

6

Tohumcu

8

▼

Bunk

20

⚽

▼

Gruda

10

⚽

▼

Damar

11

▼

Kabadayı

9

▼

Marino

Manager: G. Streichsbier

46'▲M. Frauendorf←▼M. Damar

66'▲J. Diehl←▼Y. Kabadayı

66'▲K. Topp←▼S. Marino

78'▲T. Rothe←▼B. Gruda

82'▲M. Wenig←▼D. Bunk

Germany U19 substitutes

7Frauendorf18Diehl13Topp16Rothe14Wenig17Zehnter12Backhaus2Lehmann

Manager: V. Minasyan

59'▲H. Sargsyan←▼H. Tatosyan

66'▲E. Papikyan←▼V. Tovmasyan

67'▲A. Eloyan←▼A. Mkrtychyan

88'▲N. Hovhannisyan←▼K. Davtyan

88'▲K. Hovhannisyan←▼G. Papian

Armenia U19 substitutes

18Sargsyan23Papikyan9Eloyan21Hovhannisyan22Hovhannisyan3Grigoryan12Khachatryan2Darbinyan15Kankanyan

Match Recap: Germany U19 vs Armenia U19

Germany U19 beat Armenia U19 5-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 21, 2022.

Goals: B. Gruda (24'), M. Damar (33'), K. Topp (69' pen, 79'), L. Ullrich (89').

The match was played at GWG-Stadion A-Platz in Gifhorn.

Germany U19 vs Armenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Germany U19 vs Armenia U19