Germany U19 2–0 Andorra U19: Result & Stats

Germany U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Andorra U19

P. Brunner 55' (pen)

R. Ramšak 8'

11/12/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Germany U1974%

×Draw16%

Andorra U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U19Expected goals in this matchAndorra U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.72

Germany U19

2.38

Andorra U19

0.72

Germany U19 creates 231% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

2.52

creates per match

0.33

1.10

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Germany U19

2.52

Andorra U19

0.33

allows per match

Germany U19

1.10

Andorra U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U19+0.00on par

Andorra U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U19 ↓

Andorra U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Germany U19 or draw

90%

Germany U19 or Andorra U19

84%

Draw or Andorra U19

26%

Winning margin

Germany U19 wins by 2+

51%

Andorra U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Germany U19 1+ goals

91%

Germany U19 2+ goals

68%

Germany U19 3+ goals

42%

Andorra U19 1+ goals

51%

Andorra U19 2+ goals

16%

Andorra U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

89%

Andorra U19 (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Andorra U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U19 attack 2.52 + Andorra U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Andorra U19 attack 0.33 + Germany U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Germany U19 scores more

74%

level

16%

Andorra U19 scores more

10%

Germany U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Germany U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

J. Guma

8'

R. Ramšak

26'

Pau Miranda← Pol Foix

44'

Y. Santaella

55'

P. BrunnerPenalty

62'

Haroun← Jan Rodríguez

62'

Manel Anglada← Yedid Santaella

63'

C. Herrmann← S. El Mala

71'

A. Ouédraogo← M. Moerstedt

71'

T. Bulut← M. Hennig

77'

F. Jeltsch← W. Osawe

78'

N. Darvich← M. Kritzer

78'

Bernat Arderiu← Jan Gumà

78'

Didi← Cerni García

88'

F. Jeltsch

90+1'

M. Anglada

90+3'

D. Fernandes Antunes

Germany

Andorra

13

4

18

3

15

10

▼

Foix

6

▼

Santaella

5

Simonet

2

▼

García

9

▼

Gumà

19

▼

1

3

5

14

▼

Hennig

15

Decker

6

▼

Osawe

16

▼

Kritzer

9

▼

Moerstedt

7

⚽

Brunner

20

⚽

Ramšak

11

▼

Mala

Manager: H. Balitsch

63'▲C. Herrmann←▼S. El Mala

71'▲A. Ouédraogo←▼M. Moerstedt

71'▲T. Bulut←▼M. Hennig

77'▲F. Jeltsch←▼W. Osawe

78'▲N. Darvich←▼M. Kritzer

Germany U19 substitutes

17Herrmann18Ouédraogo13Bulut4Jeltsch10Darvich8Dárdai2Moreira19Malanga12Heide

Manager: Óscar Sonejee

26'▲Pau Miranda←▼Pol Foix

62'▲Haroun←▼Jan Rodríguez

62'▲Manel Anglada←▼Yedid Santaella

78'▲Bernat Arderiu←▼Jan Gumà

78'▲Didi←▼Cerni García

Andorra U19 substitutes

20Miranda7Haroun16Anglada14Arderiu23Didi22Gracia1Heredia11Struve21Moutinho

Match Recap: Germany U19 vs Andorra U19

Germany U19 beat Andorra U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 12, 2024.

Goals: R. Ramšak (8'), P. Brunner (55' pen).

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.

Germany U19 vs Andorra U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Germany U19 vs Andorra U19