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Germany U17 W vs Denmark U17 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Germany U17 W
Germany U17 W
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Denmark U17 W
Denmark U17 W
9/11/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Germany U17 W60%
×Draw20%
Denmark U17 W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany U17 W
2.17
Denmark U17 W
1.17

Germany U17 W creates 85% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Germany U17 W
2.33
Denmark U17 W
1.00

allows per match

Germany U17 W
1.33
Denmark U17 W
2.00

finishing

Germany U17 W+0.00on par
Denmark U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U17 W ↓

Denmark U17 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Germany U17 W or draw
80%
Germany U17 W or Denmark U17 W
80%
Draw or Denmark U17 W
40%

Winning margin

Germany U17 W wins by 2+
37%
Denmark U17 W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Germany U17 W 1+ goals
89%
Germany U17 W 2+ goals
64%
Germany U17 W 3+ goals
36%
Denmark U17 W 1+ goals
69%
Denmark U17 W 2+ goals
33%
Denmark U17 W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Germany U17 W (draw refunded)
75%
Denmark U17 W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U17 W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Denmark U17 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U17 W attack 2.33 + Denmark U17 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Denmark U17 W attack 1.00 + Germany U17 W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Germany U17 W scores more
60%
level
20%
Denmark U17 W scores more
20%

Germany U17 W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Germany U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Germany U17 W 0–0 Denmark U17 W

Germany U17 W and Denmark U17 W drew 0-0 in Friendlies Women on September 11, 2025.