Germany U17 3–4 Spain U17: Result & Stats

Germany U17

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Spain U17

3/28/2023

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi - Emir Hotels 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Germany U1756%

×Draw18%

Spain U1726%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germany U17Expected goals in this matchSpain U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

1.83

Germany U17

2.72

Spain U17

1.83

Germany U17 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

3.94

creates per match

2.88

0.78

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Germany U17

3.94

Spain U17

2.88

allows per match

Germany U17

0.78

Spain U17

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germany U17+0.00on par

Spain U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U17 ↓

Spain U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Germany U17 or draw

74%

Germany U17 or Spain U17

82%

Draw or Spain U17

44%

Winning margin

Germany U17 wins by 2+

36%

Spain U17 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Germany U17 1+ goals

93%

Germany U17 2+ goals

75%

Germany U17 3+ goals

50%

Spain U17 1+ goals

84%

Spain U17 2+ goals

54%

Spain U17 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Germany U17 (draw refunded)

69%

Spain U17 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U17 at home — creates 3.94, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Spain U17 away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U17 attack 3.94 + Spain U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.72

Spain U17 attack 2.88 + Germany U17 defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Germany U17 scores more

56%

level

18%

Spain U17 scores more

26%

Germany U17 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Germany U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff