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Germany U17 vs Romania U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Germany U17
Germany U17
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Romania U17
Romania U17
10/23/2021UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stadionul CNAF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Germany U1762%
×Draw18%
Romania U1719%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany U17
2.57
Romania U17
1.39

Germany U17 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Germany U17
3.94
Romania U17
2.00

allows per match

Germany U17
0.78
Romania U17
1.20

finishing

Germany U17+0.00on par
Romania U17+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U17 ↓

Romania U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Germany U17 or draw
81%
Germany U17 or Romania U17
82%
Draw or Romania U17
38%

Winning margin

Germany U17 wins by 2+
41%
Romania U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Germany U17 1+ goals
92%
Germany U17 2+ goals
72%
Germany U17 3+ goals
47%
Romania U17 1+ goals
75%
Romania U17 2+ goals
40%
Romania U17 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Germany U17 (draw refunded)
76%
Romania U17 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U17 at home — creates 3.94, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Romania U17 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U17 attack 3.94 + Romania U17 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.57

Romania U17 attack 2.00 + Germany U17 defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Germany U17 scores more
62%
level
18%
Romania U17 scores more
19%

Germany U17 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Germany U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Germany U17 5–0 Romania U17

Germany U17 beat Romania U17 5-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul CNAF in Mogoşoaia.