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Germany U17 vs Liechtenstein U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Germany U17
Germany U17
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Liechtenstein U17
Liechtenstein U17
10/15/2023UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Sportplatz Blumenau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Germany U1797%
×Draw2%
Liechtenstein U171%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany U17
5.08
Liechtenstein U17
0.39

Germany U17 creates 1203% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Germany U17
3.94
Liechtenstein U17
0.00

allows per match

Germany U17
0.78
Liechtenstein U17
6.21

finishing

Germany U17+0.00on par
Liechtenstein U17+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U17 ↓

Liechtenstein U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–016%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (16%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Germany U17 or draw
99%
Germany U17 or Liechtenstein U17
98%
Draw or Liechtenstein U17
3%

Winning margin

Germany U17 wins by 2+
90%
Liechtenstein U17 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Germany U17 1+ goals
99%
Germany U17 2+ goals
95%
Germany U17 3+ goals
84%
Liechtenstein U17 1+ goals
32%
Liechtenstein U17 2+ goals
6%
Liechtenstein U17 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Germany U17 (draw refunded)
99%
Liechtenstein U17 (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U17 at home — creates 3.94, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Liechtenstein U17 away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U17 attack 3.94 + Liechtenstein U17 defence 6.21 → ÷2 → 5.08

Liechtenstein U17 attack 0.00 + Germany U17 defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Germany U17 scores more
97%
level
2%
Liechtenstein U17 scores more
1%

Germany U17 at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Germany U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germany U17 vs Liechtenstein U17

Germany U17 beat Liechtenstein U17 6-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Blumenau in Triesen.