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Germany U17 vs Latvia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Germany U17
Germany U17
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Latvia U17
Latvia U17
10/22/2022UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Baza Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Germany U1773%
×Draw15%
Latvia U1712%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany U17
3.00
Latvia U17
1.18

Germany U17 creates 154% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Germany U17
3.94
Latvia U17
1.57

allows per match

Germany U17
0.78
Latvia U17
2.07

finishing

Germany U17+0.00on par
Latvia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U17 ↓

Latvia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Germany U17 or draw
88%
Germany U17 or Latvia U17
85%
Draw or Latvia U17
27%

Winning margin

Germany U17 wins by 2+
53%
Latvia U17 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Germany U17 1+ goals
95%
Germany U17 2+ goals
79%
Germany U17 3+ goals
56%
Latvia U17 1+ goals
69%
Latvia U17 2+ goals
33%
Latvia U17 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Germany U17 (draw refunded)
86%
Latvia U17 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U17 at home — creates 3.94, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Latvia U17 away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U17 attack 3.94 + Latvia U17 defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 3.00

Latvia U17 attack 1.57 + Germany U17 defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Germany U17 scores more
73%
level
15%
Latvia U17 scores more
12%

Germany U17 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Germany U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germany U17 vs Latvia U17

Germany U17 beat Latvia U17 2-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Baza Zimbru in Chişinău.