Germania 2–3 PPS / Old Stars: Result & Stats

Germania

2 – 3

PPS / Old Stars

4/7/2024

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundTöölön Pallokenttä 6 tn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Germania9%

×Draw12%

PPS / Old Stars79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GermaniaExpected goals in this matchPPS / Old Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

3.50

Germania

1.17

PPS / Old Stars

3.50

PPS / Old Stars creates 199% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

0.67

creates per match

4.67

2.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Germania

0.67

PPS / Old Stars

4.67

allows per match

Germania

2.33

PPS / Old Stars

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania+0.00on par

PPS / Old Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania ↓

PPS / Old Stars →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–37%

0–46%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Germania or draw

21%

Germania or PPS / Old Stars

88%

Draw or PPS / Old Stars

91%

Winning margin

Germania wins by 2+

PPS / Old Stars wins by 2+

61%

Team goals

Germania 1+ goals

69%

Germania 2+ goals

33%

Germania 3+ goals

11%

PPS / Old Stars 1+ goals

97%

PPS / Old Stars 2+ goals

85%

PPS / Old Stars 3+ goals

66%

Draw no bet

Germania (draw refunded)

10%

PPS / Old Stars (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Germania at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

PPS / Old Stars away — creates 4.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Germania attack 0.67 + PPS / Old Stars defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

PPS / Old Stars attack 4.67 + Germania defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 79%?"

Germania scores more

level

12%

PPS / Old Stars scores more

79%

PPS / Old Stars at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "PPS / Old Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff