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Germania Teveren vs TuS BW Königsdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Germania Teveren
Germania Teveren
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TuS BW Königsdorf
TuS BW Königsdorf
3/15/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 22Heidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Germania Teveren29%
×Draw22%
TuS BW Königsdorf49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Teveren
1.43
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.91

TuS BW Königsdorf creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Germania Teveren
0.93
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.48

allows per match

Germania Teveren
2.33
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.92

finishing

Germania Teveren+0.00on par
TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Teveren ↓

TuS BW Königsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Germania Teveren or draw
51%
Germania Teveren or TuS BW Königsdorf
78%
Draw or TuS BW Königsdorf
71%

Winning margin

Germania Teveren wins by 2+
13%
TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Germania Teveren 1+ goals
76%
Germania Teveren 2+ goals
42%
Germania Teveren 3+ goals
17%
TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals
85%
TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals
57%
TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Germania Teveren (draw refunded)
37%
TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Teveren at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

TuS BW Königsdorf away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.92 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Teveren attack 0.93 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.43

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 1.48 + Germania Teveren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Germania Teveren scores more
29%
level
22%
TuS BW Königsdorf scores more
49%

TuS BW Königsdorf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TuS BW Königsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germania Teveren vs TuS BW Königsdorf

Germania Teveren beat TuS BW Königsdorf 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Heidestadion in Geilenkirchen.