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Germania Teveren vs Hennef 05 — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Germania Teveren
Germania Teveren
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hennef 05
Hennef 05
3/3/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 20Heidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Germania Teveren25%
×Draw21%
Hennef 0555%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Teveren
1.40
Hennef 05
2.16

Hennef 05 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

creates per match

Germania Teveren
0.93
Hennef 05
1.98

allows per match

Germania Teveren
2.33
Hennef 05
1.86

finishing

Germania Teveren+0.00on par
Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Teveren ↓

Hennef 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Germania Teveren or draw
45%
Germania Teveren or Hennef 05
79%
Draw or Hennef 05
75%

Winning margin

Germania Teveren wins by 2+
11%
Hennef 05 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Germania Teveren 1+ goals
75%
Germania Teveren 2+ goals
41%
Germania Teveren 3+ goals
17%
Hennef 05 1+ goals
88%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
63%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Germania Teveren (draw refunded)
31%
Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Teveren at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Teveren attack 0.93 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + Germania Teveren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Germania Teveren scores more
25%
level
21%
Hennef 05 scores more
55%

Hennef 05 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germania Teveren vs Hennef 05

Hennef 05 beat Germania Teveren 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Heidestadion in Geilenkirchen.