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Germania Teveren vs Eintracht Hohkeppel — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Germania Teveren
Germania Teveren
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Eintracht Hohkeppel
Eintracht Hohkeppel
9/17/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 6Heidestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Germania Teveren20%
×Draw21%
Eintracht Hohkeppel59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Teveren
1.17
Eintracht Hohkeppel
2.12

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 43 away

creates per match

Germania Teveren
0.93
Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.91

allows per match

Germania Teveren
2.33
Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.40

finishing

Germania Teveren+0.00on par
Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Teveren ↓

Eintracht Hohkeppel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Germania Teveren or draw
41%
Germania Teveren or Eintracht Hohkeppel
79%
Draw or Eintracht Hohkeppel
80%

Winning margin

Germania Teveren wins by 2+
8%
Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Germania Teveren 1+ goals
69%
Germania Teveren 2+ goals
33%
Germania Teveren 3+ goals
11%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals
88%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals
62%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Germania Teveren (draw refunded)
26%
Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Teveren at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Teveren attack 0.93 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 1.91 + Germania Teveren defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Germania Teveren scores more
20%
level
21%
Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more
59%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germania Teveren vs Eintracht Hohkeppel

Eintracht Hohkeppel beat Germania Teveren 4-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Heidestadion in Geilenkirchen.