Germania Ratingen 2–0 TVD Velbert: Result & Stats

Germania Ratingen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

TVD Velbert

5/7/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 37Stadion Ratingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Germania Ratingen57%

×Draw21%

TVD Velbert23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania RatingenExpected goals in this matchTVD Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.30

Germania Ratingen

2.15

TVD Velbert

1.30

Germania Ratingen creates 65% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 72 away

2.22

creates per match

1.38

1.23

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Germania Ratingen

2.22

TVD Velbert

1.38

allows per match

Germania Ratingen

1.23

TVD Velbert

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

TVD Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw

77%

Germania Ratingen or TVD Velbert

79%

Draw or TVD Velbert

43%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+

34%

TVD Velbert wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals

88%

Germania Ratingen 2+ goals

63%

Germania Ratingen 3+ goals

36%

TVD Velbert 1+ goals

73%

TVD Velbert 2+ goals

37%

TVD Velbert 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)

71%

TVD Velbert (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.15

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more

57%

level

21%

TVD Velbert scores more

23%

Germania Ratingen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff