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Germania Ratingen vs SF Niederwenigern — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
CANC
14:00
SF Niederwenigern
SF Niederwenigern
12/20/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 20Stadion Ratingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Germania Ratingen62%
×Draw19%
SF Niederwenigern19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Ratingen
2.29
SF Niederwenigern
1.19

Germania Ratingen creates 92% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 38 away

creates per match

Germania Ratingen
2.22
SF Niederwenigern
1.16

allows per match

Germania Ratingen
1.23
SF Niederwenigern
2.37

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par
SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

SF Niederwenigern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw
81%
Germania Ratingen or SF Niederwenigern
81%
Draw or SF Niederwenigern
38%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
39%
SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
90%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
66%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
40%
SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals
70%
SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals
33%
SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
77%
SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

SF Niederwenigern away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.29

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.16 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more
62%
level
19%
SF Niederwenigern scores more
19%

Germania Ratingen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Germania Ratingen vs SF Niederwenigern — Match Preview

Germania Ratingen face SF Niederwenigern on December 20, 2020 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Germania Ratingen host SF Niederwenigern at Stadion Ratingen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.