Germania Ratingen 2–2 SC St. Tönis: Result & Stats

Germania Ratingen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

SC St. Tönis

8/24/2025

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 2Sportpark Ratingen Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Germania Ratingen45%

×Draw22%

SC St. Tönis33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania RatingenExpected goals in this matchSC St. Tönis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.60

Germania Ratingen

1.89

SC St. Tönis

1.60

Germania Ratingen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 70 away

2.22

creates per match

1.97

1.23

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Germania Ratingen

2.22

SC St. Tönis

1.97

allows per match

Germania Ratingen

1.23

SC St. Tönis

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

SC St. Tönis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw

67%

Germania Ratingen or SC St. Tönis

78%

Draw or SC St. Tönis

55%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+

25%

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals

85%

Germania Ratingen 2+ goals

56%

Germania Ratingen 3+ goals

29%

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals

80%

SC St. Tönis 2+ goals

47%

SC St. Tönis 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)

58%

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

SC St. Tönis away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.56 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.89

SC St. Tönis attack 1.97 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more

45%

level

22%

SC St. Tönis scores more

33%

Germania Ratingen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff