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Germania Ratingen vs Rather SV — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
FT
0 – 1
Rather SV
Rather SV
7/26/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Germania Ratingen41%
×Draw24%
Rather SV35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Ratingen
1.63
Rather SV
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Germania Ratingen
2.00
Rather SV
2.00

allows per match

Germania Ratingen
1.00
Rather SV
1.25

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par
Rather SV+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

Rather SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw
65%
Germania Ratingen or Rather SV
76%
Draw or Rather SV
59%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
21%
Rather SV wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
80%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
48%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
22%
Rather SV 1+ goals
78%
Rather SV 2+ goals
44%
Rather SV 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
54%
Rather SV (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Rather SV away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.00 + Rather SV defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rather SV attack 2.00 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more
41%
level
24%
Rather SV scores more
35%

Germania Ratingen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germania Ratingen vs Rather SV

Rather SV beat Germania Ratingen 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 26, 2020.