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Germania Ratingen vs Meerbusch — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Meerbusch
Meerbusch
3/21/2025Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 24Stadion Ratingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Germania Ratingen53%
×Draw21%
Meerbusch26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Ratingen
2.12
Meerbusch
1.42

Germania Ratingen creates 49% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 92 away

creates per match

Germania Ratingen
2.22
Meerbusch
1.61

allows per match

Germania Ratingen
1.23
Meerbusch
2.02

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par
Meerbusch+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

Meerbusch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw
74%
Germania Ratingen or Meerbusch
79%
Draw or Meerbusch
47%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
32%
Meerbusch wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
88%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
62%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
35%
Meerbusch 1+ goals
76%
Meerbusch 2+ goals
41%
Meerbusch 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
68%
Meerbusch (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

Meerbusch away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.02 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + Meerbusch defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.12

Meerbusch attack 1.61 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more
53%
level
21%
Meerbusch scores more
26%

Germania Ratingen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germania Ratingen vs Meerbusch

Germania Ratingen beat Meerbusch 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Ratingen in Ratingen.