Germania Ratingen 1–3 Hilden: Result & Stats

Germania Ratingen

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Hilden

2/25/2024

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 20Stadion Ratingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Germania Ratingen41%

×Draw22%

Hilden36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania RatingenExpected goals in this matchHilden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.71

Germania Ratingen

1.83

Hilden

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

2.22

creates per match

2.19

1.23

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Germania Ratingen

2.22

Hilden

2.19

allows per match

Germania Ratingen

1.23

Hilden

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Hilden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

Hilden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw

64%

Germania Ratingen or Hilden

78%

Draw or Hilden

59%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+

22%

Hilden wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals

84%

Germania Ratingen 2+ goals

54%

Germania Ratingen 3+ goals

28%

Hilden 1+ goals

82%

Hilden 2+ goals

51%

Hilden 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)

53%

Hilden (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

Hilden away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + Hilden defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hilden attack 2.19 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more

41%

level

22%

Hilden scores more

36%

Germania Ratingen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff