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Germania Ratingen vs Dusseldorf-West — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
CANC
13:00
Dusseldorf-West
Dusseldorf-West
4/25/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 37Stadion Ratingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Germania Ratingen57%
×Draw20%
Dusseldorf-West23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Ratingen
2.27
Dusseldorf-West
1.39

Germania Ratingen creates 63% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 22 away

creates per match

Germania Ratingen
2.22
Dusseldorf-West
1.55

allows per match

Germania Ratingen
1.23
Dusseldorf-West
2.32

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par
Dusseldorf-West+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

Dusseldorf-West →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw
77%
Germania Ratingen or Dusseldorf-West
80%
Draw or Dusseldorf-West
43%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
35%
Dusseldorf-West wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
90%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
66%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
39%
Dusseldorf-West 1+ goals
75%
Dusseldorf-West 2+ goals
40%
Dusseldorf-West 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
71%
Dusseldorf-West (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

Dusseldorf-West away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + Dusseldorf-West defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.27

Dusseldorf-West attack 1.55 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more
57%
level
20%
Dusseldorf-West scores more
23%

Germania Ratingen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Germania Ratingen vs Dusseldorf-West — Match Preview

Germania Ratingen face Dusseldorf-West on April 25, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Germania Ratingen host Dusseldorf-West at Stadion Ratingen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.