Germania Ratingen 8–2 Cronenberger SC

Germania Ratingen

FT

8 – 2

Cronenberger SC

9/26/2021

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 6Stadion Ratingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Germania Ratingen63%

×Draw19%

Cronenberger SC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania RatingenExpected goals in this matchCronenberger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.18

Germania Ratingen

2.35

Cronenberger SC

1.18

Germania Ratingen creates 99% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 42 away

2.22

creates per match

1.12

1.23

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Germania Ratingen

2.22

Cronenberger SC

1.12

allows per match

Germania Ratingen

1.23

Cronenberger SC

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

Cronenberger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw

82%

Germania Ratingen or Cronenberger SC

81%

Draw or Cronenberger SC

37%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+

41%

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals

90%

Germania Ratingen 2+ goals

68%

Germania Ratingen 3+ goals

41%

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals

69%

Cronenberger SC 2+ goals

33%

Cronenberger SC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)

78%

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.35

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more

63%

level

19%

Cronenberger SC scores more

18%

Germania Ratingen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff