Germania Ratingen 3–1 Büderich: Result & Stats

Germania Ratingen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Büderich

5/1/2024

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 30Stadion Ratingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Germania Ratingen52%

×Draw21%

Büderich28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania RatingenExpected goals in this matchBüderich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.57

Germania Ratingen

2.20

Büderich

1.57

Germania Ratingen creates 40% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 50 away

2.22

creates per match

1.92

1.23

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Germania Ratingen

2.22

Büderich

1.92

allows per match

Germania Ratingen

1.23

Büderich

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Büderich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Ratingen ↓

Büderich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Germania Ratingen or draw

72%

Germania Ratingen or Büderich

79%

Draw or Büderich

48%

Winning margin

Germania Ratingen wins by 2+

31%

Büderich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Germania Ratingen 1+ goals

89%

Germania Ratingen 2+ goals

64%

Germania Ratingen 3+ goals

37%

Büderich 1+ goals

79%

Büderich 2+ goals

46%

Büderich 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)

65%

Büderich (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Ratingen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.23 · 91 matches

Büderich away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.18 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Ratingen attack 2.22 + Büderich defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.20

Büderich attack 1.92 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Germania Ratingen scores more

52%

level

21%

Büderich scores more

28%

Germania Ratingen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Germania Ratingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff