Germania Halberstadt 4–3 Wismut Gera

Germania Halberstadt

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Wismut Gera

4/26/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 25Friedensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Germania Halberstadt61%

×Draw18%

Wismut Gera21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania HalberstadtExpected goals in this matchWismut Gera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.74

1.60

Germania Halberstadt

2.74

Wismut Gera

1.60

Germania Halberstadt creates 71% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

2.60

creates per match

1.60

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Germania Halberstadt

2.60

Wismut Gera

1.60

allows per match

Germania Halberstadt

1.60

Wismut Gera

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par

Wismut Gera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Halberstadt ↓

Wismut Gera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Germania Halberstadt or draw

79%

Germania Halberstadt or Wismut Gera

82%

Draw or Wismut Gera

39%

Winning margin

Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+

41%

Wismut Gera wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals

93%

Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals

75%

Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals

51%

Wismut Gera 1+ goals

80%

Wismut Gera 2+ goals

47%

Wismut Gera 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)

74%

Wismut Gera (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Halberstadt at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Wismut Gera away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Halberstadt attack 2.60 + Wismut Gera defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.74

Wismut Gera attack 1.60 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Germania Halberstadt scores more

61%

level

18%

Wismut Gera scores more

21%

Germania Halberstadt at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Germania Halberstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff