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Germania Halberstadt vs FC Grimma — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Germania Halberstadt
Germania Halberstadt
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
FC Grimma
FC Grimma
4/6/2025Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 23Friedensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Germania Halberstadt57%
×Draw20%
FC Grimma23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Halberstadt
2.34
FC Grimma
1.45

Germania Halberstadt creates 61% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 82 away

creates per match

Germania Halberstadt
2.60
FC Grimma
1.30

allows per match

Germania Halberstadt
1.60
FC Grimma
2.09

finishing

Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par
FC Grimma+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Halberstadt ↓

FC Grimma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Germania Halberstadt or draw
77%
Germania Halberstadt or FC Grimma
80%
Draw or FC Grimma
43%

Winning margin

Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+
36%
FC Grimma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals
90%
Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals
67%
Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals
41%
FC Grimma 1+ goals
77%
FC Grimma 2+ goals
42%
FC Grimma 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)
71%
FC Grimma (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Halberstadt at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

FC Grimma away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.09 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Halberstadt attack 2.60 + FC Grimma defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.34

FC Grimma attack 1.30 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Germania Halberstadt scores more
57%
level
20%
FC Grimma scores more
23%

Germania Halberstadt at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Germania Halberstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germania Halberstadt vs FC Grimma

Germania Halberstadt beat FC Grimma 4-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Friedensstadion in Halberstadt.