Germania Halberstadt 2–1 Blau-Weiß Zorbau

Germania Halberstadt

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

10/19/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 9Friedensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Germania Halberstadt58%

×Draw19%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania HalberstadtExpected goals in this matchBlau-Weiß Zorbau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.48

Germania Halberstadt

2.45

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.48

Germania Halberstadt creates 66% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 53 away

2.60

creates per match

1.36

1.60

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Germania Halberstadt

2.60

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.36

allows per match

Germania Halberstadt

1.60

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par

Blau-Weiß Zorbau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Halberstadt ↓

Blau-Weiß Zorbau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Germania Halberstadt or draw

77%

Germania Halberstadt or Blau-Weiß Zorbau

81%

Draw or Blau-Weiß Zorbau

42%

Winning margin

Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+

37%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals

91%

Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals

70%

Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals

44%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1+ goals

77%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2+ goals

43%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)

72%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Halberstadt at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Blau-Weiß Zorbau away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Halberstadt attack 2.60 + Blau-Weiß Zorbau defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.45

Blau-Weiß Zorbau attack 1.36 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Germania Halberstadt scores more

58%

level

19%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau scores more

23%

Germania Halberstadt at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Germania Halberstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff