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Germania Halberstadt vs Bischofswerdaer FV — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Germania Halberstadt
Germania Halberstadt
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
3/7/2026Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 20Friedensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Germania Halberstadt49%
×Draw21%
Bischofswerdaer FV29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germania Halberstadt
2.09
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.58

Germania Halberstadt creates 32% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 77 away

creates per match

Germania Halberstadt
2.60
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.57

allows per match

Germania Halberstadt
1.60
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.58

finishing

Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par
Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Halberstadt ↓

Bischofswerdaer FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Germania Halberstadt or draw
71%
Germania Halberstadt or Bischofswerdaer FV
79%
Draw or Bischofswerdaer FV
51%

Winning margin

Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+
29%
Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals
88%
Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals
62%
Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals
34%
Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
79%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
47%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)
63%
Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Halberstadt at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Bischofswerdaer FV away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Halberstadt attack 2.60 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.09

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.57 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Germania Halberstadt scores more
49%
level
21%
Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
29%

Germania Halberstadt at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Germania Halberstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Germania Halberstadt vs Bischofswerdaer FV

Bischofswerdaer FV beat Germania Halberstadt 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Friedensstadion in Halberstadt.